In light of the breathless anticipation which preceded the Fed Chair’s speech to her peers at Jackson Hole and cognisant of the mild state of befuddlement with which it was received, we felt it would be of interest to readers to have a translation, together with a gloss (each in bold), in order to try to remove some of the obscurities contained therein. Continue reading
Category Archives: USA
Io, Saturnalia!
Ah, Brexit! What is there left to say that not already been said, most of it either out of folly or falsehood? As regards the overall political backdrop to this lightning bolt of mass discontent, the only thing that is clear is that there is no clarity—neither within Britain nor without. If, as the Good Book tells us, a house divided against itself cannot stand—hard hats on, people! Continue reading
Productivity Unpuzzled
It is certainly the case that the recently reported NFP numbers were poor. Compared to a mean/median of 193k a month in private job additions over this past six years or so, June’s paltry total – of 65k after we add back the 40k Verizon strikers – was 1.9 standard deviations away from what we have become used to.
Indeed, taking the raw, 25k increment, this was the worst showing since early 2010, capping off a three-month run which has been the worst since 2012. If we compare instead aggregate hours scaled for population, it can be argued that the figure has been edging into a zone which has been typical of past recessions – though, with frequent short-lived spikes in the record, this indicator needs the confirmation of subsequent bad months ahead. Continue reading
Money, Macro & Markets – The Archive
Regular readers will know that the articles published here are but a small subset of the detailed work I undertake to analyse economic and political developments and their effects on markets. In order to give some idea of the scope of this, presented below is an archive of past issues of the Austrian School-informed, in-depth monthly publication, ‘Money, Macro & Markets’ in addition to which I compile twice monthly updates as the ‘Midweek Macro Musings’ which are also made available on a complimentary basis to subscribers to the former letter.
What WILL it Take?
In the midst of all the recent uproar, one anonymous Twitterer seized his chance to have his Uber-Warholian, 140-characters-of-fame moment and thundered: ‘Central banks are losing control of this market!’ no doubt eliciting whatever the social media equivalent of a cry of ‘Hear! Hear!’ and an approbatory nodding of the head might be from among his followers. Continue reading
Manufacturing matters
Much predictably fatuous comment has been devoted to the fact that, to the extent that the US is facing any difficulties at all outside the oil patch, at present these ‘only’ affect manufacturing—a sector which , as any fool knows, accounts for a mere 12% of GDP. Ergo, we are told, while employment in general holds up and consumer spending is maintained, a recession is not to be countenanced—a bill of clean health which conveniently supports the sell-side’s fingers-crossed contention that stocks are cheap and that credit is beginning to offer up real bargains for the man brave enough to dip his toe back into the waters. Continue reading
The Three Kings (and One Queen)
Please read on for a little light Christmas cheer, with apologies to the spirit of Henry Wadsworth Longfellow.
Has the Fed ‘Bought the Farm’?
Those of us who have not been stuck on Mars for the past five years, tending our potato patch, will be dimly aware that the Grand Mages of the economic world – the central bankers – have been manfully searching their spell-books and bubbling their alembics in order to exorcise the dreaded demon of Deflation from the land, terrified that the world will collapse around them if too many shoppers are too routinely confronted with anything that might smack of being a bargain. Continue reading
Laying the Foundations
As the Yellen Fed inches painfully towards taking its first ‘data-dependent’ steps to raise rates (albeit with the promise that such a process will follow the disastrous, well signposted creep upward which enabled so much damage to be wrought after the Tech Bust), the evidence mounts as to just how belated any such action will be. Take housing, for instance. Continue reading
‘Income £20-0s-0d. Expenditure £20-0s-6d’
In our previous ‘Money, Markets & Macro’ monthly publication, we devoted some time to a consideration of the fact that the growth in US payroll costs was beginning to outstrip that of business revenues, a state of affairs which we suggested could not long be endured. Continue reading