Tagged: Federal Reserve

Uncertainty! GASP!

Amid the relative torpor of the US holiday, it might be the moment to wax a little philosophical and ask if you, the listener, have ever noticed that so much of what passes for economic wisdom today involves the persistent overuse of the word ‘uncertainty’? Continue reading

Time to Get Real

Having just managed to quell a dangerous rebellion among her fellow Committee members, it did not seem the most opportune time for Janet Yellen to start dreaming of the sort of post-war ‘demand management’ that would happily trade a few extra percentage points of price inflation in order to move a little further up the employment axis in that unshakable vision of the Phillips Curve that seems to dominate the modern central banker’s thought processes.

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Historical Norms? Really, Janet?

In the Q&A which followed the latest Federal Reserve exercise in ostrich imitation, Janet Yellen offered up this giant hostage to fortune, if only in the spirit of she-would-say-that-wouldn’t-she:

‘Overall, I would say that the threats to financial stability I would characterize, at this point, as moderate. In general, I would not say that asset valuations are out of line with historical norms.’

Patently, if she has somehow arrived at the determination that there is no indeterminably constituted asset bubble in operation, then it figures that non-bubble asset prices cannot be out of line with their norms. Chalk one up to answering one’s own question in the affirmative.

But how much truth is there in this claim? Not very much at all as you will discover if you click on the following link to read this extract of the latest monthly ‘Money, Macro & Markets‘:

MMM Sept 2016 Pt III

 

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Fed’s Toolkit

In light of the breathless anticipation which preceded the Fed Chair’s speech to her peers at Jackson Hole and cognisant of the mild state of befuddlement with which it was received, we felt it would be of interest to readers to have a translation, together with a gloss (each in bold), in order to try to remove some of the obscurities contained therein. Continue reading

A Trap of their Own Making

As we have laid out in some detail in our professional work, it is clear that Chinese banks have entirely lost their inhibitions about creating money these past twelve months. It is equally clear that once such money is called into existence, someone must be caught in the act of holding it when a balance sheet snapshot is taken, however eager their desire to ‘pass the bad or depreciating half-crown to the other fellow’ may be and thus regardless of what the fate of that money will be an instant after the shutter has closed on the statistical camera. Continue reading

MMM Approach

At root, MMM is based on the belief that the Credit Cycle is the Business Cycle; that fluctuations in money and credit are what give rise to instabilities in economies. It is our lot to live in a period where the checks and balances on such turbulence are much less robust than ever before; one where the deliberate violation of such restraint as does remain has become the very goal of active policy. To try to understand the interplay between money, asset markets, and the real world is the crux of what we do.

There is not much here that is a dull repetition of the mainstream economics practised so widely today. It may be a strange confession for the author of a publication called ‘Money, Macro & Markets’, but we like to start thinking about things from the individual perspective before working upwards to the collective – from micro to macro as it were. No spurious pseudo-science, just the rigorous application of logic tempered in the forge of experience.

For more detail, please download the Intro:-

16-04-28 MMM Approach

MMM Archive

Regular readers will know that the articles published here are but a small subset of the detailed work I undertake to analyse economic and political developments and their effects on markets. In order to give some idea of the scope of this, presented below is an archive of past issues of the Austrian School-informed, in-depth monthly publication, ‘Money, Macro & Markets’ in addition to which I compile twice monthly updates as the ‘Midweek Macro Musings’ which are also made available on a complimentary basis to subscribers to the former letter.

September 2016 – US equity (over)valuation: Eurozone policy overkill: Japan’s dire fiscal status

16-09-29 MMM Sept Issue

July 2016 – Liquidity traps: Post-Brexit UK: Chinese credit

16-07-20 MMM July Issue

June 2016 – US Labour Market: Productivity Unpuzzled

16-06-20 MMM June Issue

May 2016 – IMF Ship of Fools: China the Next Sucker

16-05-12 MMM May-Issue

April 2016 – UK deficit – Fred Karney’s Circus: China’s Drain: US – All in Order

16-04-11 MMM Apr Issue

March 2016 – ECB Overkill: The Farm Patch goes Oil Patch: Beijing Fingers in the Dam: Drilling Down

16-03-10 MMM Mar Issue

February 2016 – China Hopium Wars: USA Top-end Teetering: Saudi’s Empty Quarters: Is Cheap Oil Good?

16-02-10 MMM Feb Issue

January 2016 – China promises reform (again): The Fed finally does it: Carney sees no signal: ECB running out of debtors

16-01-12 MMM Jan Issue

November 2015 – Hocus Pocus: UK Sells the Family Silver to Europe: USA ABCT: China JIitters

15-11-11 MMM Nov Issue

October 2015 – Against Stupidity: Tail-chasing at the Fed: Lipstick on the Chinese Pig: Stocks (& Bonds) for the Long Run

15-10-12 MMM Oct Issue

September 2015 – Mississippi Bubble Chinese-style: Reserves & Repos Cheatsheet: Shuddup, already!

15-09-01 MMM Sep Issue

August 2015 – China’s Fake Boom: FRB Wash, Spin, Repeat: UK World per capita Deficit Champs: Euro Money Explosion: Real Commodities still not cheap

15-07-30 MMM Aug Issue

July 2015 – China & the Water(ed) Margin: Spending the Swiss Hoards: Behind the Fed Curve: CPI Mania goes Global: US Equity Valuations

15-07-30 MMM July Issue

June 2015 – China Running to Stand Still: USA Fewer Grasshoppers per Ant: UK New Regime, Old problems: Europe’s Rational(ized) Bubble

15-07-30 MMM June Issue

For subscription details, please refer to the HindeSight Letters page.

Money, Macro & Markets – The Archive

Regular readers will know that the articles published here are but a small subset of the detailed work I undertake to analyse economic and political developments and their effects on markets. In order to give some idea of the scope of this, presented below is an archive of past issues of the Austrian School-informed, in-depth monthly publication, ‘Money, Macro & Markets’ in addition to which I compile twice monthly updates as the ‘Midweek Macro Musings’ which are also made available on a complimentary basis to subscribers to the former letter.

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I Love the Smell of Napalm in the Market

That usually perceptive and always interesting observer of the financial Zeitgeist, Bloomberg’s estimable Mark Gilbert, recently penned an article entitled: “Milton Friedman’s ‘Helicopter Money’ Is Looking Less Crazy.” In response, I mailed him the comments which follow (with light editing) here. Continue reading