After several weeks of solid upward movement, industrial commodities are beginning to fade once more, switching from a dynamic which posed a threat to the upper bound of the last six months’ trading range to one which suggests a mean reversion is far more likely.
Readers may have noticed a relative lack of activity on this website in recent weeks, an omission for which I apologise.
The reason behind this is that I have been involved in a good deal of work in preparing and launching a new flagship publication, one which will carry the bulk of my output henceforward.
This will take place in collaboration with the team at HindeSight Letters – an offshoot of the well-respected Hinde Capital. Those who wish to continue to receive the sort of in-depth analysis presented here, but now on a regular monthly basis, are invited to take a look at the newsletter, details of which can be found by following the link to:- ‘Money, Macro & Markets’
In the near future, HindeSight will also be publishing a more condensed, weekly update which will aim to add a brief commentary on salient data and market developments as they arise. Details will be forthcoming shortly.
In light of this, the blog here will carry much briefer, ad hoc articles from now on – essentially those for which a tweet is perhaps too short – as well as announcements of updates to the Hinde pages.
I hope I can count on your continued interest under the new regime.
Please find the concluding part of our discussion where, among other topics, we touch upon the arbitrary and even capricious nature of the policy goals we are pursuing at such cost in the attempt to shore up what Bill disparagingly calls the ‘Non-System’.
Amid all the debate about the US economy and the somewhat vague prospect of the Fed finally showing some cojones at some point in the future, the principle feature which allows the Doves to block any renormalization of the rate is the supposedly soft state of the labour market, particularly with reference to the sorry-looking participation rate.
Please find here the first part of the lengthy discussion – organized by the Cobden Centre with kind assistance from Hinde Capital – which we held in March with William White, that most distinguished elder statesmen of finance and one of the few to really understand that if we are ever to find the right answers to the problems confronting us, we must at least be prepared to ask difficult questions. Part II will be posted shortly.