After several weeks of solid upward movement, industrial commodities are beginning to fade once more, switching from a dynamic which posed a threat to the upper bound of the last six months’ trading range to one which suggests a mean reversion is far more likely.

COPPER BULLS BLINK Courtesy: Bloomberg

WTI DISAPPOINTING LONGS Courtesy: Bloomberg

Not only the industrials, however, but the Ags, too, are wilting despite the supposed dangers of a developing El Nino. With planting well advanced and expectations that the next USDA report will suggest good crop conditions, the only hope is whether recent rains hvae been too heavy and whether a large short base can kick us up off support.

RAIN MAKES GRAIN Courtesy: Bloomberg

Weak commodities, a strengthening dollar and rebounding bonds might be telling us to beware a resumption of the larger trend from H2’14 in coming weeks.

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