It was almost inevitable that, days after the front end of the US interest rate structure had undergone a 35 basis-point plunge, its sharpest one week fall in yield since the immediate aftermath of the Lehman Crisis, the key non-farm payroll data would also come in weak. [First published June 10th]
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Tag Archives: Manufacturing
Patterns, Predictions & the PMI
Certain schools of thought – among them the so-called ‘Market Monetarists’, as well as George Selgin’s Fractional Free Bankers – believe – in line with the thinking of the later Hayek – that the Fed would be better off effecting policy with regard to the maintenance of a steady rate of growth of nominal GDP.
Consciously or otherwise, we would argue that this is largely what it has done, over the years, and that this insight helps us tie together developments in the PMI, in business income streams, and in the Fed funds rate.
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