When it comes to that key commodity oil, there are three main features of the market to watch alongside the price: namely, the spread between WTI and Brent and the shape of the two futures curves. Visible inventory levels provide the main and most frequent ‘fundamental’ data we have (though these are not always straightforward to interpret ) while the (delayed) weekly insight into futures positioning gives us another excuse to read the runes. [First Published May 29th] Continue reading
Category Archives: Oil
The Ph(o)enix Rises
Please find links to some of the commentaries made as part your author’s role as investment strategy adviser to Phenix Consulting & Asset Management over the course of 2018. ‘Market Movers’ provide updates on developments in and projections for commodity markets themselves while ‘Primary Concerns’ presents the L/S fund’s monthly results:- Continue reading
Trade Wars: Blue-on-Blue
The so-called ‘war’ over trade being conducted by the US & China has given rise to much ill-informed commentary about its supposed benefits, its prospective victims, and China’s putative responses. Continue reading
The Turn of the Tide
Have we finally reached the high-water mark of the current bull run? Is all the good news in – and the last, most shaky, marginal buyer along with it, inveigled in by the bounce from February’s brief Vol-au-Vent? If so, what are the implications? Where are the trigger points? How will any weakness manifest itself? Continue reading
How the VIX Seller Lost his Shirt (updated)
Previously featured by the good folk at Real Vision, my look at how the narrative we construct around the events of the market is all important in determining how we react to it and, hence, what further ramifications these might involve.
The Eternal Triangle
Are equities ‘overpriced’ and if so, by how much? What about bonds or that largely forgotten asset-class, commodities? How do the three of them inter-relate and can we take advantage of such behaviour in order to build a better, more macro-resilient portfolio?
We take a detailed look, here, in the presentation found by clicking on the link:
Once through with feeling
Some readers may be interested in putting a voice – and even a face – to the author. Below are links to three recent audio-visual publications in which I discuss US & Chinese macro as well as the interrelations between the three great asset classes of stocks, bonds, an commodities. Following on is a wider sampling of my views. Continue reading
Pluto’s Republic
The more our would-be Philosopher Kings attempt to display the awesome panoply of their intellectual armour, the more we think, not of the Greek sage from whom they seem to draw inspiration, but of Mickey Mouse’s dopey canine friend.
In bonds, the Bears are mounting another one of their forlorn hope charges against the central bank ramparts which is, in turn, rendering equities a little more expensive in relative, as well as absolute, terms. Commodities, meanwhile, are firmly rooted in mean reversion mode.
Please click the link for the latest comments:-
Patience, Bund bears! Patience!
No, Mario is NOT about to give up – whatever! China monetary trends might mean the industrial earnings cycle has peaked. US debt levels are still OK, but the low cost is promoting slightly worrisome growth – nor are Tech balance sheets entirely without blemish. Commodities – clueless and friendless.
Please click for the latest Monitor
Latest Edition
Please click the link for my latest thoughts, including a look at equity margin debt, the broad symmetry between today’s richest-ever & the 1980s’ cheapest bonds, the new natgas bulls, China, and gold. 17-05-29 M4 No 2