The phrase on everyone’s lips at the moment is ‘Yield Curve’ – largely for its supposedly unerring ability to predict a recession if not, as its most extreme devotees seem to imply, actually to cause one. But is that a valid interpretation of what is afoot in financial markets and does that jibe with how the real economy is developing?  To listen instead to my podcast on this issue, please go to CantillonCH at SoundCloud, or search Apple Podcasts and Spotify for ‘Cantillon Effects’. For an expanded PDF transcript of the yield curve discussion, complete with explanatory charts, please see 19-04-06 M4 No21