Duck Hunting

I’ve entitled this episode of Cantillon Effects, ‘Duck Hunting’, not because I have any sudden urge to blast waterfowl out of the sky, but because a number of economic canards clearly need shooting down before they can find a safe place to roost in the general consciousness and there begin to breed even more confusion than already exists. [To listen instead to my podcast on this, please go to CantillonCH at SoundCloud, or search Apple Podcasts and Spotify for ‘Cantillon Effects’] Continue reading

The Man Who Would Be King

With his latest sophomoric outpourings, Ray Dalio confirms our impression that here we have a man who is undoubtedly a first-class money-maker but who has recently quit that lucrative last in order to display his second-rate intellect by peddling distinctly third-hand ideas. [To listen instead to my podcast on this, please go to CantillonCH at SoundCloud, or search Apple Podcasts and Spotify for ‘Cantillon Effects’] Continue reading

Behind the Curve

The phrase on everyone’s lips at the moment is ‘Yield Curve’ – largely for its supposedly unerring ability to predict a recession if not, as its most extreme devotees seem to imply, actually to cause one. But is that a valid interpretation of what is afoot in financial markets and does that jibe with how the real economy is developing?  To listen instead to my podcast on this issue, please go to CantillonCH at SoundCloud, or search Apple Podcasts and Spotify for ‘Cantillon Effects’. For an expanded PDF transcript of the yield curve discussion, complete with explanatory charts, please see 19-04-06 M4 No21

M4 Compendium (updated)

As a way of providing easy access to most of the regular work we have published over the past two years – and hence to getting a feel for what we do and how we do it – please see here for a collection in PDF form, offered in reverse chronological order. Continue reading

China Banking: Pigs Might Fly

There must be something in the air this winter – something that is besides the whiff of climate cant and manufactured eco-hysteria emanating from Davos and all the other organs of bien pensanterie. For, everywhere you look, someone is going less than quietly insane, either cooking up or Swedish chef rehashing glaring errors of economic idiocy or sweet-shop window socialism. Bork, bork, bork!

[This article can be heard as a podcast on Soundcloud under ‘CantillonCH‘ or iTunes under ‘Cantillon Effects‘] Continue reading

MMT: The Court Astrologer’s Dream

It’s not Modern; it’s not Monetary; and it’s really not much of a Theory

If ever there was a prime example of a belief in the Fairy Gov-a-Mother being mixed with a bad case of warmed-over monetary crankdom, the suddenly, newly- fashionable doctrine which masquerades under the portentous-sounding name of ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ – ‘MMT’, for short – must surely qualify.

For a shortened version of this as a podcast, go to: Soundcloud Apple Podcasts under ‘Cantillon Effects’ or TuneIn at:- https://bit.ly/2CXfEpy

Continue reading

Trade Wars: Those damn’d torpedoes are OURS!

For many an age, a principal element of Britain’s strategy in its frequent wars with its Continental rivals was that of the naval blockade.

Throughout the long years of increasing mastery of the High Seas, the nation’s fleet admirals, frigate captains and often forcibly-impressed jack tars were frequently to be found, hovering just beyond the enemy’s horizon in order to deny their French, Dutch, or Spanish adversaries any freedom of navigation, whether for commercial or military purposes. Thus they aimed to limit their foes’ operational reach and slowly to bleed their economies dry.

Indeed, the one great defeat suffered by the British in a quarter of a millennium of oceanic predominance was partly the result of the fleet’s rare inability to secure its grip on the coastline of the Crown’s rebellious subjects in the American colonies – a failure partly due to sheer logistical difficulties and partly to the confusion of purpose which the simultaneous defence of the then more highly-prized Caribbean sugar islands entailed. Continue reading

Central Banking: It’s alive!!

In his recent posting on Linked In, entitled, ‘The death of macro-prudential’, Stuart Trow of the EBRD delivered a well-aimed broadside at the pitiable conduct of the Bank of England and elaborated on some of the malign consequences of its catalogue of errors. Without wishing to single him out unduly for criticism for a piece with whose broad outlines I concur,  I see it as a prime example of where even those who are not wholly in thrall to the cult of ‘Whatever it Takes’ often miss the critical features of that cult’s essential evil. Continue reading

Trade Wars: Blue-on-Blue

The so-called ‘war’ over trade being conducted by the US & China has given rise to much ill-informed commentary about its supposed benefits, its prospective victims, and China’s putative responses. Continue reading

The Turn of the Tide

Have we finally reached the high-water mark of the current bull run? Is all the good news in – and the last, most shaky, marginal buyer along with it, inveigled in by the bounce from February’s brief Vol-au-Vent? If so, what are the implications? Where are the trigger points? How will any weakness manifest itself?  Continue reading