Category Archives: Credit

MMT: The Court Astrologer’s Dream

by CantillonCH

It’s not Modern; it’s not Monetary; and it’s really not much of a Theory

If ever there was a prime example of a belief in the Fairy Gov-a-Mother being mixed with a bad case of warmed-over monetary crankdom, the suddenly, newly- fashionable doctrine which masquerades under the portentous-sounding name of ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ – ‘MMT’, for short – must surely qualify.

For a shortened version of this as a podcast, go to: Soundcloud Apple Podcasts under ‘Cantillon Effects’ or TuneIn at:- https://bit.ly/2CXfEpy

Continue reading …

Central Banking: It’s alive!!

by CantillonCH

In his recent posting on Linked In, entitled, ‘The death of macro-prudential’, Stuart Trow of the EBRD delivered a well-aimed broadside at the pitiable conduct of the Bank of England and elaborated on some of the malign consequences of its catalogue of errors. Without wishing to single him out unduly for criticism for a piece with whose broad outlines I concur,  I see it as a prime example of where even those who are not wholly in thrall to the cult of ‘Whatever it Takes’ often miss the critical features of that cult’s essential evil. Continue reading …

The Turn of the Tide

by CantillonCH

Have we finally reached the high-water mark of the current bull run? Is all the good news in – and the last, most shaky, marginal buyer along with it, inveigled in by the bounce from February’s brief Vol-au-Vent? If so, what are the implications? Where are the trigger points? How will any weakness manifest itself?  Continue reading …

The CAPE of Good Hope

by CantillonCH

Though we have come to look a little askance at the seemingly ubiquitous CAPE measure – not least because of its gratingly unnuanced adoption by the Permabears – we can still utilise it to derive some broad sense of the market’s status once we attempt to adjust it for what we see as two of its bigger flaws: the seemingly arbitrary nature of the 10-year calculation period and its lack of regard for the effect of those wider asset valuations being expressed in the bond market that we have just touched on above. Continue reading …

Pump’n’Dump

by CantillonCH

One of the prevailing stories which nervous market participants whisper to each other at bedtime involves the timely appearance of the Fairy God-mother, hastening to Earth from Tir Nan Og to launch another multi-trillion round of money-printing the instant that our over-inflated asset prices suffer any meaningful setback. This comforting narrative, however, presupposes three key elements…

Continue reading …

Cryptomania

by CantillonCH

As the phenomenon which is Bitcoin continues its transition from the geek press, past the financial columns and onto the front-pages of the newspapers, a little sober reflection may be in order. Are its proponents’ claims justified when they tell us that, far from being yet another instance of the Madness of Crowds, it will soon replace all our existing monies and supplant our present ways of doing business? And, if they are right, will that redound either to their benefit or to ours, or to a different set of actors entirely?

Continue reading …

Breaking China

by CantillonCH

For some months now, we have been warning of the stresses building in China’s credit structure and warning that, if unaddressed, they would lead to pain in asset markets and potentially to weakness out in the real economy. Here, we lay out the arguments in detail.

17-11-28 China

 

Where’s the Off Switch?

by CantillonCH

In our latest piece we look at the ECB’s overkill and all manner of possible over-valuations at work in different markets around the world – the two not being entirely unconnected, the reader might note! Continue reading …

It was THIS big…

by CantillonCH

A theme which frequently pops up in current financial and economic commentary is that of the burgeoning levels of outstanding debt under which all too many nations are said to groan. Typically, reference will be made to the percentage of GDP which this mountain of obligations entails, usually by way of putting it into a context which is deliberately slanted to be alarming. But how valid is this comparison? Continue reading …

Easy Money, Hard Times

by CantillonCH

Though the connexion is not always explicitly drawn, one obvious corollary of the perceived current shortfall in corporate investment spending is to be found in the lacklustre nature of the gains being recorded in something called ‘productivity’.

This latter deficiency is often said to have ‘puzzled’ the Good and Great who presume to be able to influence such matters for the better, but one can readily identify factors which implicate the policies of those same would-be helmsmen of the economy, themselves, in the discouragement they offer for capital formation and by the incentives they afford for less than ideal practices among businesses, consumers, and governments, alike.

For a downloadable PDF version of this article, please click: 17-10-27 Easy Money

Continue reading …