Thanks very much to my old friend, Steve Sedgwick at Squawk Box Europe for the chat this morning. We looked at Growth v Value, the US v ROW, we touched on bonds and borrowing, money supply, inflation, lockdown, commodities & gold – all in under 10 minutes!
To fill out what all might seem a bit rushed on the soundfile, here are the notes I sent to accompany our chat, complete with a little extra gloss for you to read at your leisure:-
While politicians anxiously check the shifting weather-vanes of public opinion and scientists squabble over facts as well as interpretations, central banks are resolutely doing what they do best – wildly exceeding their briefs and trying to drown all problems in a flood of newly-created money. As ever, the underconsumptionists worry that a lack of demand will usher in deflation, in spite of all such efforts. Some of us, however, worry more about what it will do to supply. Here, we explain why [For those who would like a podcast version please follow this LINK]:-
For those of us in the field of finance, the last several weeks have been interesting – not to say hair-raising – ones with regard to the financial and economic aspects of the coronavirus epidemic and a fortiori with the official, hyper-Lehman response to it.
Alongside these, much greater issues clearly lie. Obviously, one can only discuss the public health and medical elements of this episode from the perspective of an educated layman and so these will not be dealt with here in any detail. However, there are several salient points arising from these which it would be remiss not to remark upon, given that they have much wider implications, far beyond the epidemiological or clinical treatment of the current crisis. [PODCAST VERSION HERE]
The so-called ‘war’ over trade being conducted by the US & China has given rise to much ill-informed commentary about its supposed benefits, its prospective victims, and China’s putative responses. Continue reading
Have we finally reached the high-water mark of the current bull run? Is all the good news in – and the last, most shaky, marginal buyer along with it, inveigled in by the bounce from February’s brief Vol-au-Vent? If so, what are the implications? Where are the trigger points? How will any weakness manifest itself? Continue reading
A theme which frequently pops up in current financial and economic commentary is that of the burgeoning levels of outstanding debt under which all too many nations are said to groan. Typically, reference will be made to the percentage of GDP which this mountain of obligations entails, usually by way of putting it into a context which is deliberately slanted to be alarming. But how valid is this comparison? Continue reading
No, Mario is NOT about to give up – whatever! China monetary trends might mean the industrial earnings cycle has peaked. US debt levels are still OK, but the low cost is promoting slightly worrisome growth – nor are Tech balance sheets entirely without blemish. Commodities – clueless and friendless.
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The craziness that is Abenomics seems to have one flimsy foundation: viz., that Japan’s fiscal situation seems so dire as not to be susceptible of a rational approach. Not that this is any real excuse for the political cowardice which attempts to disguise the problem through gross financial and monetary manipulation.
Please click the link for a thorough analysis:- 16-09-29-mmm-sep-jpn
In this complimentary extract from last month’s edition of ‘Money, Macro & Markets‘, that’s the issue at which I take a detailed look. Please follow the link to access the PDF:-