Positively Natural – Pt III

June 24, 2016 by CantillonCH

NO REMEDY IN THIS CONSUMPTION OF THE PURSE

But the sort of reasoning we developed in the last of this series is alien to much of today’s mainstream, many of whose members succumb to the long-dispelled, circular fallacies of the productivity argument. Yet more of them adhere to what Dennis Robertson wickedly derided as Keynes’ Cheshire Cat theory of ‘liquidity preference’ (‘The rate of interest is what it is because it is expected to be other than it is. But if it is not expected to be other than it is, there is nothing to tell us why it is what it is… [it is] a grin without a cat’).

Positively Natural – Pt II

June 23, 2016 by CantillonCH

THE NET THAT SHALL ENMESH THEM ALL

Now, the foregoing may be all well and good, but it is also the case that any such consignment of goods is open to a multitude of what economists call ‘rivalrous’ uses. If this is not true for that rare, individual batch of highly purpose-specific goods which we may have under consideration in some particular instance it will nonetheless still hold for the earlier, typically less use-constrained goods of which that batch is partially comprised, as well as for the later, more shop-ready goods to which it will in turn give rise and whose own market valuation, as we have seen, will help determine the price of their antecedents

Positively Natural – Pt I

June 20, 2016June 23, 2016 by CantillonCH

THE CASE FOR POSITIVE INTEREST

An Austrian rebuttal of Summers et al, in four parts

THE TIME IS OUT OF JOINT

Over the years, any number of psychological experiments have been conducted in order to validate – or at least to give a veneer of academic corroboration to – a truth already well established by practical experience; namely, that we humans must continually struggle to overcome our basic animal instinct to seek instant gratification of our wants.

The Case for Brexit

May 17, 2016May 17, 2016 by CantillonCH

‘Dear True Sinews, what are your thoughts on Brexit? Roger Bootle wrote a piece in the Telegraph yesterday suggesting that just because everyone is saying one thing, it doesn’t necessarily follow they are right Currently, I sit firmly on the fence getting splinters! Neither side is convincing me either way.’

So wrote a friend the other day. What follows is my answer to his question.

Mehr Europa? Wir sagen, Nein!

May 2, 2016May 2, 2016 by CantillonCH

Riddle me this, if you will. ‘Europe’ as a concept has perhaps never stood in lower regard, whether in the eyes of its own citizens or of those of us thankfully still beyond its reach. Yet the euro is strengthening – with options showing levels of bullishness not seen since the 2008/9 Crisis – and the likes of Italy and Spain can both borrow for 30 years at much the same rate as can the USA. Ye Gods! It truly must be the Promised Land.

But, forget the fantasy world of central bank-distorted financial markets for a moment and look around at the world beyond the Bloomberg screens.

Money, Macro & Markets – The Archive

April 28, 2016June 8, 2016 by CantillonCH

Regular readers will know that the articles published here are but a small subset of the detailed work I undertake to analyse economic and political developments and their effects on markets. In order to give some idea of the scope of this, presented below is an archive of past issues of the Austrian School-informed, in-depth monthly publication, ‘Money, Macro & Markets’ in addition to which I compile twice monthly updates as the ‘Midweek Macro Musings’ which are also made available on a complimentary basis to subscribers to the former letter.

The Road to Canossa

April 24, 2016April 28, 2016 by CantillonCH

That the artificial interest rates in evidence in our hugely distorted capital and money markets can be made negative in nominal as well as in real terms is, alas, the curse of the modern age. Though entirely at odds with natural order – as we have repeatedly tried to make plain – they are also a curse that we are unlikely to have lifted any time soon, especially not in a Europe where there is no effective restraint to be had upon the exercise of his awful powers by the likes of a fanatic like Draghi.

Avoiding the Issue

April 12, 2016April 28, 2016 by CantillonCH

In the wake of the so-called ‘Panama Papers’ furore, the push-button issue of the One Percent being found able – OH! THE HORROR! – to shield some of its wealth from the taxman, regardless of the jurisdiction in which its members have chosen to set up shop, has predictably called forth bad economics, dubious legal opinion, and strident political point-scoring in almost equal measure. Continue reading …

Thoughts on Gold

March 31, 2016April 28, 2016 by CantillonCH

A brief, pictorial essay seeking to illustrate a few salient features of today’s gold market, such as what underlying factors drive the gold price? How ‘cheap’ or ‘expensive’ is gold on a relative and historical basis? Gold or gold miners, that is the question. How is the gold market positioned? What do the technicals say about gold’s possible future direction?
Read the thoughts of the author of ‘Money, Macro & Markets‘ courtesy of HindeSight Letters

I Love the Smell of Napalm in the Market

March 23, 2016April 28, 2016 by CantillonCH

That usually perceptive and always interesting observer of the financial Zeitgeist, Bloomberg’s estimable Mark Gilbert, recently penned an article entitled: “Milton Friedman’s ‘Helicopter Money’ Is Looking Less Crazy.” In response, I mailed him the comments which follow (with light editing) here. Continue reading …